21.10.2020
Élections américaines : quels sont les risques extrêmes ?
A couple of weeks ahead of the US elections, we look at the potential tail risks for financial markets. First, we observe recently two facts: Biden’s lead moved from 6.5% in September to something closer to 10% as we are writing and the Trump campaign is missing financial resources while the Biden campaign does not feel the same pressure at all.
Of course, we cannot just file the election as a done deal.
The main reason is that the fraction of voters who will vote by mail will increase substantially this year and Trump has been laying for months now the pretext that mail-in voting provides too many opportunities for fraud. State agencies and lower courts are adjusting their rules to make it easier to vote by mail while higher courts are reversing those decisions. Both create excuses to challenge the results ex-post. We believe there is a 10-15% chance that the presidential election tightens to the point that each camp could claim for victory and asks authority to reverse elections results. Of course, one person will take the oath of office on January 20th, but who that will be could be unknown till mid-January. Adding to the fact that in such scenario, the new President will appear illegitimate by about half the country, we see this plausible outcome as a clear tail risk for financial markets.
In the more likely event of a Biden win and Democratic senate, it is known that policy won’t be capital friendly. Indeed, Biden plans to:
- Raise corporate taxes back to where they were before the 2017 cut
- Raise taxes on US corporations operating overseas
- Tax capital gains as ordinary income (above USD 1mio)
- Establish a minimum tax on book income
- Raise the marginal tax rate on those earning over USD 400k per year.
Of course, we can expect more than USD 2tn Covid- relief package with a big infrastructure bill including spending on green-energy projects and an expansion of Obamacare which might counter-balance market sentiments. Nevertheless, Biden also plans to reinstitute regulations. House Democrats have recently explored antitrust issues to Internet giants. Given their heavy weights in the US indices, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indices could face some selling pressure. This scenario can also be seen a atail risk.
Autres publications
25.02.2026
The Swiss Experience x Cité Gestion
Dans le cadre de The Swiss Experience, nous avons rencontré des praticiens du droit brésiliens à Genève afin de partager nos perspectives économiques pour 2026 et de discuter de la banque privée à travers des études de cas concrets. Cette initiative, que nous soutenons pour la troisième année consécutive, renforce les liens entre le marché brésilien et l'écosystème financier suisse tout en favorisant les partenariats stratégiques et les relations à long terme.
Lire plus18.02.2026
Intelligence artificielle : le début d'un cycle ?
L'histoire économique montre que les véritables révolutions industrielles ne se définissent pas par la technologie elle-même, mais par l'ampleur des investissements qu'elles suscitent.
Lire plus12.02.2026
Bienvenue à Reto Taborgna, Michel Ehrenhold et Stefan Müller !
Nous avons le plaisir d’annoncer l’arrivée de Reto Taborgna en tant que COO & Business Risk Manager, Michel Ehrenhold en tant que Responsable Juridique et Stefan Müller en tant que Responsable adjoint du support Private Banking chez Cité Gestion.
Lire plus09.02.2026
Forum Horizon 2026 – temps forts de l'événement
Face aux turbulences économiques globales, quel cap pour la Suisse?
Retour sur le Forum Horizon 2026, tenu le 29 janvier 2026 à l'IMD Lausanne.
Lire plus03.02.2026
Kevin Warsh à la Fed : prise de pouvoir ou rétablissement de la crédibilité ?
La nomination de Kevin Warsh au poste de président de la Réserve fédérale américaine a suscité de vives réactions sur les marchés, mais aussi de nombreux malentendus.
Lire plus26.01.2026
Bienvenue à Norma Hedinger !
Nous avons le plaisir d’annoncer l’arrivée de Norma Hedinger en tant que banquière chez Cité Gestion.
Lire plus